Online retailers are bracing for a record holiday season, but the reason shoppers are opening their wallets is not the one stores were hoping for. According to a new forecast from Adobe Analytics, US shoppers will spend $275.1 billion online between November 1 and December 31, 2026, a 6.7% jump from last year. Yet much of that growth is being driven by households stocking up on everyday essentials rather than splurging on gifts.
The shift reflects a broader change in how consumers are cutting back across their budgets while treating certain categories as untouchable. Shoppers are increasingly using seasonal discount events to buy items they would have purchased anyway, from cleaning supplies to clothing basics, locking in lower prices before year-end rather than waiting for a true emergency.
Essentials, not extravagance
Retail analysts tracking the run-up to Cyber Week say the pattern is consistent: deal-seeking has replaced discretionary spending as the main driver of online traffic. Global shoppers have already been cutting back everywhere except the grocery aisle for much of 2026, and that caution is now carrying over into how they approach the holidays. Rather than disappearing, spending is being redirected toward categories households consider non-negotiable.
- Personal care and hygiene products are expected to see the sharpest seasonal lift as shoppers stock up during promotional windows.
- Clothing basics and household cleaning supplies are also forecast to outpace average sales growth.
- Pet products and baby essentials remain resilient categories even as other discretionary spending softens.
AI tools are reshaping how people buy
The other force behind this year’s numbers is automation. A growing share of shoppers are letting AI-assisted shopping tools compare prices, track discounts, and even complete purchases on their behalf. Survey data cited by retail trade press shows that the majority of shoppers who have tried an AI assistant for online shopping say it made them more confident in their purchases, a sign that automation is lowering the friction of bargain-hunting rather than simply adding convenience.
That trend echoes what is already happening in adjacent markets. AI-powered search tools are already reshaping how people find local services, and retailers now expect the same automated discovery to steer holiday traffic toward whichever store can prove it has the lowest price in real time. For merchants, that means the competition for holiday dollars is increasingly fought over data feeds and product listings rather than storefront design alone.
What it means for budgets
The essentials-first pattern lines up with a wider retreat from discretionary spending that has shown up across other parts of household budgets this year. Consumers have also been trimming entertainment spending while still prioritizing the experiences they value most, suggesting households are making deliberate trade-offs rather than cutting spending across the board. Holiday shopping in 2026 looks less like a splurge and more like a calculated restocking exercise, timed to discounts and increasingly managed by software.
For shoppers, the practical takeaway is to treat the early promotional weeks as a genuine opportunity to lock in savings on recurring purchases, rather than assuming the deepest discounts are reserved for gift categories alone.
Questions fréquentes
How much are US shoppers expected to spend online this holiday season?
Adobe Analytics forecasts $275.1 billion in US online sales between November 1 and December 31, 2026, up 6.7% from the previous year.
Why are shoppers buying essentials instead of gifts during the holidays?
Economic pressure is pushing households to prioritize value, so many are using holiday discounts to stock up on items like hygiene products, clothing basics, and household supplies rather than spending on discretionary gifts.
How are AI tools changing online holiday shopping?
AI-assisted shopping tools are increasingly used to compare prices and track discounts automatically, with most users who try them reporting more confidence in their purchasing decisions.
Sources
This article was written with the help of artificial intelligence. Editorial policy
